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Commodities · Intermarket

What commodities are saying about the economy

Prices on their own tell you little. The relationships do: gold against silver and copper, oil against gold and gas, refining margins, and how commodities move with yields, inflation expectations, the dollar and equities. Each ratio below is scored against its own history, with a plain-language reading.

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Cross-asset read—

    Rules-based model read from the ratios and correlations on this page.

    Ratios

    Percentile against each ratio's own history · 3-month change

    Ratio history

    How markets are moving together

    Correlation of daily changes, past year
    Move togetherUnrelatedMove opposite

    Speculative positioning

    CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, futures only

    Net long minus short positions held by managed money (hedge funds and commodity trading advisors), as a share of open interest, ranked against the past three years. Crowded positions tend to unwind sharply when the story changes.

    Why ratios, not prices

    A price mixes many forces at once. A ratio cancels out what two markets share, such as the dollar or general inflation, and isolates what differs between them: growth versus safety, supply versus demand.

    How often it updates

    Energy, rates, dollar and equity relationships update every business day. Metals and grains use the World Bank's monthly price series. Positioning is weekly, from the CFTC.

    Licensed inputs

    Ratios that use equity index data are shown as percentiles and z-scores only. We don't publish the underlying index or ratio levels.