{"site":"Analytica Horizon","generated":"2026-10-12T16:49:41+00:00","counts":{"bear":18,"watch":11,"bull":19,"na":8},"failures":0,"indicators":[{"id":"pe","cat":"Valuation","name":"Trailing P/E","role":"condition","rule":"Bearish well above ~16 long-run average","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"multpl.com / S&P DJI","reading":"","status":"bear","asOf":"2026-09-23","note":"Well above the long-run average on trailing earnings.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"fpe","cat":"Valuation","name":"Forward 12-month P/E","role":"condition","rule":"Bearish above ~21–22","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"FactSet","reading":"","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"Close to its 5- and 10-year averages because expected earnings growth is very strong.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"cape","cat":"Valuation","name":"Shiller CAPE","role":"condition","rule":"Bearish above 30; record 44.2 (Dec 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sloping","history":[["2024-10-15",0.08],["2024-10-21",0.17],["2024-10-25",0.14],["2024-10-31",0.12],["2024-11-06",0.15],["2024-11-13",0.17],["2024-11-19",0.12],["2024-11-25",0.06],["2024-12-02",0.02],["2024-12-06",0.05],["2024-12-12",0.14],["2024-12-18",0.15],["2024-12-24",0.3],["2024-12-31",0.33],["2025-01-07",0.37],["2025-01-13",0.39],["2025-01-17",0.34],["2025-01-24",0.36],["2025-01-30",0.34],["2025-02-05",0.26],["2025-02-11",0.25],["2025-02-18",0.26],["2025-02-24",0.27],["2025-02-28",0.25],["2025-03-06",0.33],["2025-03-12",0.31],["2025-03-18",0.25],["2025-03-24",0.3],["2025-03-28",0.38],["2025-04-03",0.35],["2025-04-09",0.43],["2025-04-15",0.51],["2025-04-22",0.65],["2025-04-28",0.56],["2025-05-02",0.5],["2025-05-08",0.47],["2025-05-14",0.48],["2025-05-20",0.51],["2025-05-27",0.51],["2025-06-02",0.52],["2025-06-06",0.47],["2025-06-12",0.46],["2025-06-18",0.44],["2025-06-25",0.55],["2025-07-01",0.48],["2025-07-08",0.52],["2025-07-14",0.53],["2025-07-18",0.56],["2025-07-24",0.52],["2025-07-30",0.44],["2025-08-05",0.5],["2025-08-11",0.51],["2025-08-15",0.58],["2025-08-21",0.54],["2025-08-27",0.65],["2025-09-03",0.61],["2025-09-09",0.54],["2025-09-15",0.51],["2025-09-19",0.57],["2025-09-25",0.54],["2025-10-01",0.57],["2025-10-07",0.57],["2025-10-14",0.55],["2025-10-20",0.54],["2025-10-24",0.54],["2025-10-30",0.5],["2025-11-05",0.54],["2025-11-12",0.52],["2025-11-18",0.54],["2025-11-24",0.58],["2025-12-01",0.55],["2025-12-05",0.58],["2025-12-11",0.62],["2025-12-17",0.67],["2025-12-23",0.7],["2025-12-30",0.69],["2026-01-06",0.71],["2026-01-12",0.65],["2026-01-16",0.65],["2026-01-23",0.64],["2026-01-29",0.71],["2026-02-04",0.72],["2026-02-10",0.71],["2026-02-17",0.62],["2026-02-23",0.6],["2026-02-27",0.59],["2026-03-05",0.56],["2026-03-11",0.57],["2026-03-17",0.52],["2026-03-23",0.51],["2026-03-27",0.56],["2026-04-02",0.52],["2026-04-08",0.5],["2026-04-14",0.5],["2026-04-20",0.54],["2026-04-24",0.53],["2026-04-30",0.52],["2026-05-06",0.49],["2026-05-12",0.46],["2026-05-18",0.54],["2026-05-22",0.43],["2026-05-29",0.47],["2026-06-04",0.42],["2026-06-10",0.42],["2026-06-16",0.38],["2026-06-23",0.34],["2026-06-29",0.28],["2026-07-06",0.35],["2026-07-10",0.35],["2026-07-16",0.41],["2026-07-22",0.36],["2026-07-28",0.35],["2026-08-03",0.45],["2026-08-07",0.46],["2026-08-13",0.48],["2026-08-19",0.46],["2026-08-25",0.47],["2026-08-31",0.41],["2026-09-04",0.41],["2026-09-11",0.33],["2026-09-17",0.27],["2026-09-23",0.26],["2026-09-29",0.37],["2026-10-05",0.47],["2026-10-09",0.44]],"stale":false},{"id":"usd","cat":"Rates & liquidity","name":"Broad dollar index","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish on a 5%+ rally in 3 months","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"Federal Reserve via FRED (DTWEXBGS)","reading":"121.4","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-10-02","note":"+0.6% over 3 months","history":[["2024-10-15",123.5124],["2024-10-21",124.4757],["2024-10-25",124.6105],["2024-10-31",124.7988],["2024-11-06",125.7035],["2024-11-13",126.9572],["2024-11-19",126.3994],["2024-11-25",126.9948],["2024-12-02",127.1272],["2024-12-06",126.688],["2024-12-12",126.9556],["2024-12-18",127.6418],["2024-12-24",128.3377],["2024-12-31",129.2775],["2025-01-07",128.613],["2025-01-13",130.0413],["2025-01-17",129.4859],["2025-01-24",127.4611],["2025-01-30",128.1004],["2025-02-05",127.9751],["2025-02-11",128.4322],["2025-02-18",127.2906],["2025-02-24",127.1921],["2025-02-28",128.2805],["2025-03-06",126.1099],["2025-03-12",125.8664],["2025-03-18",125.488],["2025-03-24",126.1956],["2025-03-28",126.4187],["2025-04-03",124.7316],["2025-04-09",126.628],["2025-04-15",123.776],["2025-04-21",122.3145],["2025-04-25",122.8858],["2025-05-01",123.1405],["2025-05-07",122.117],["2025-05-13",122.9583],["2025-05-19",122.4186],["2025-05-23",121.3837],["2025-05-30",121.7674],["2025-06-05",120.9596],["2025-06-11",120.587],["2025-06-17",120.5048],["2025-06-24",120.3645],["2025-06-30",119.4088],["2025-07-07",119.6201],["2025-07-11",119.9214],["2025-07-17",120.6384],["2025-07-23",119.5697],["2025-07-29",120.9674],["2025-08-04",120.9859],["2025-08-08",120.3329],["2025-08-14",120.6446],["2025-08-20",120.7757],["2025-08-26",120.5274],["2025-09-02",120.6837],["2025-09-08",120.0971],["2025-09-12",120.0611],["2025-09-18",119.6616],["2025-09-24",120.1707],["2025-09-30",120.1368],["2025-10-06",120.2722],["2025-10-10",121.1163],["2025-10-17",120.7028],["2025-10-23",120.9531],["2025-10-29",120.5312],["2025-11-04",121.8271],["2025-11-10",121.2984],["2025-11-17",121.1146],["2025-11-21",121.8653],["2025-11-28",121.0527],["2025-12-04",120.6766],["2025-12-10",120.6752],["2025-12-16",119.8902],["2025-12-22",119.9912],["2025-12-29",119.5899],["2026-01-05",119.6192],["2026-01-09",120.2215],["2026-01-15",119.9951],["2026-01-22",119.1962],["2026-01-28",117.5117],["2026-02-03",117.9764],["2026-02-09",117.6392],["2026-02-13",117.5258],["2026-02-20",117.9917],["2026-02-26",117.9042],["2026-03-04",119.0705],["2026-03-10",118.7255],["2026-03-16",120.097],["2026-03-20",120.2757],["2026-03-26",120.389],["2026-04-01",120.1198],["2026-04-07",120.32],["2026-04-13",118.9916],["2026-04-17",118.0795],["2026-04-23",118.7155],["2026-04-29",119.0975],["2026-05-05",118.6207],["2026-05-11",118.0562],["2026-05-15",119.2825],["2026-05-21",119.369],["2026-05-28",119.0318],["2026-06-03",119.3848],["2026-06-09",119.9617],["2026-06-15",119.3158],["2026-06-22",120.5463],["2026-06-26",120.8866],["2026-07-02",120.6902],["2026-07-09",120.753],["2026-07-15",120.3088],["2026-07-21",120.5779],["2026-07-27",120.7739],["2026-07-31",119.7034],["2026-08-06",119.5113],["2026-08-12",119.1179],["2026-08-18",118.9831],["2026-08-24",118.3195],["2026-08-28",118.7479],["2026-09-03",118.127],["2026-09-10",118.0787],["2026-09-16",118.9206],["2026-09-22",119.5933],["2026-09-28",120.6958],["2026-10-02",121.3848]],"stale":false},{"id":"hy","cat":"Credit","name":"High-yield spread","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when widening above 4.5–5%","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"ICE Data Indices","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-22","note":"Spreads are tight. No sign of credit stress, but little cushion.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"ig","cat":"Credit","name":"Investment-grade spread","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when widening","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"ICE Data Indices","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-23","note":"Spreads are very tight.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"sloos","cat":"Credit","name":"Bank lending standards","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish above 20% net tightening; watch above 5%","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"Federal Reserve SLOOS via FRED (DRTSCILM)","reading":"0.0%","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-30","note":"Down 8.1 pts from the previous reading","history":[["2025-01-01",6.2],["2025-04-01",18.5],["2025-07-01",9.5],["2025-10-01",6.5],["2026-01-01",5.3],["2026-04-01",8.1],["2026-07-01",0.0]],"stale":false},{"id":"nfci","cat":"Credit","name":"Financial conditions (Chicago Fed)","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish above 0; watch above −0.3","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"Chicago Fed via FRED (NFCI)","reading":"−0.49","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-10-02","note":"Up 0.06 over the past month","history":[["2024-10-18",-0.438],["2024-10-25",-0.443],["2024-11-01",-0.45],["2024-11-08",-0.457],["2024-11-15",-0.465],["2024-11-22",-0.47],["2024-11-29",-0.473],["2024-12-06",-0.476],["2024-12-13",-0.477],["2024-12-20",-0.479],["2024-12-27",-0.483],["2025-01-03",-0.487],["2025-01-10",-0.493],["2025-01-17",-0.499],["2025-01-24",-0.504],["2025-01-31",-0.507],["2025-02-07",-0.506],["2025-02-14",-0.501],["2025-02-21",-0.492],["2025-02-28",-0.478],["2025-03-07",-0.461],["2025-03-14",-0.443],["2025-03-21",-0.425],["2025-03-28",-0.408],["2025-04-04",-0.393],["2025-04-11",-0.382],["2025-04-18",-0.383],["2025-04-25",-0.389],["2025-05-02",-0.403],["2025-05-09",-0.42],["2025-05-16",-0.438],["2025-05-23",-0.452],["2025-05-30",-0.465],["2025-06-06",-0.474],["2025-06-13",-0.481],["2025-06-20",-0.488],["2025-06-27",-0.494],["2025-07-04",-0.501],["2025-07-11",-0.507],["2025-07-18",-0.512],["2025-07-25",-0.516],["2025-08-01",-0.519],["2025-08-08",-0.521],["2025-08-15",-0.524],["2025-08-22",-0.525],["2025-08-29",-0.525],["2025-09-05",-0.526],["2025-09-12",-0.526],["2025-09-19",-0.525],["2025-09-26",-0.524],["2025-10-03",-0.523],["2025-10-10",-0.521],["2025-10-17",-0.518],["2025-10-24",-0.515],["2025-10-31",-0.511],["2025-11-07",-0.508],["2025-11-14",-0.506],["2025-11-21",-0.505],["2025-11-28",-0.507],["2025-12-05",-0.51],["2025-12-12",-0.515],["2025-12-19",-0.524],["2025-12-26",-0.535],["2026-01-02",-0.547],["2026-01-09",-0.558],["2026-01-16",-0.565],["2026-01-23",-0.566],["2026-01-30",-0.563],["2026-02-06",-0.554],["2026-02-13",-0.541],["2026-02-20",-0.525],["2026-02-27",-0.506],["2026-03-06",-0.488],["2026-03-13",-0.472],["2026-03-20",-0.463],["2026-03-27",-0.459],["2026-04-03",-0.464],["2026-04-10",-0.474],["2026-04-17",-0.485],["2026-04-24",-0.495],["2026-05-01",-0.502],["2026-05-08",-0.507],["2026-05-15",-0.508],["2026-05-22",-0.507],["2026-05-29",-0.506],["2026-06-05",-0.505],["2026-06-12",-0.505],["2026-06-19",-0.507],["2026-06-26",-0.51],["2026-07-03",-0.516],["2026-07-10",-0.522],["2026-07-17",-0.528],["2026-07-24",-0.535],["2026-07-31",-0.54],["2026-08-07",-0.545],["2026-08-14",-0.549],["2026-08-21",-0.551],["2026-08-28",-0.549],["2026-09-04",-0.545],["2026-09-11",-0.536],["2026-09-18",-0.524],["2026-09-25",-0.51],["2026-10-02",-0.494]],"stale":false},{"id":"defaults","cat":"Credit","name":"Business loan delinquency","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when up 0.3 pts in a year","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"Federal Reserve via FRED (DRBLACBS)","reading":"1.27%","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-06-30","note":"Down 0.02 pts from a year earlier","history":[["2023-01-01",0.97],["2023-04-01",1.0],["2023-07-01",0.98],["2023-10-01",1.02],["2024-01-01",1.11],["2024-04-01",1.15],["2024-07-01",1.18],["2024-10-01",1.27],["2025-01-01",1.28],["2025-04-01",1.29],["2025-07-01",1.33],["2025-10-01",1.34],["2026-01-01",1.33],["2026-04-01",1.27]],"stale":false},{"id":"auctions","cat":"Credit","name":"Treasury auction demand","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when 10-yr bid-to-cover is below 2.3; watch below 2.45","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"US Treasury Fiscal Data","reading":"10-yr 2.77x · 30-yr 2.54x","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-10-07","note":"10-yr cleared at 5.300% on 2026-10-07; 30-yr at 5.618% on 2026-10-08. Bid-to-cover shown.","stale":false},{"id":"growth","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Earnings growth","role":"trigger","rule":"Bullish when double-digit and accelerating","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"FactSet","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"Analysts expect very strong earnings growth this year and solid growth next year.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"revisions","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Earnings estimate revisions","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when cuts outnumber raises","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"FactSet","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"Quarterly estimates have risen during the quarter, which is unusual.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"guidance","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Company guidance","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when negative guidance dominates","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"FactSet","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"Positive guidance is running well above its historical share.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"margins","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Profit margins","role":"condition","rule":"Bearish at records with room to fall","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"FactSet","reading":"","status":"bear","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"Profit margins are at or near records, leaving room to disappoint.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"ai","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"AI spending turning into revenue","role":"trigger","rule":"Bullish when payoff broadens past mega-caps","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"Analyst read","reading":"","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-09-18","note":"AI is widely cited on earnings calls; broad revenue payoff is not yet proven.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"ism","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"ISM manufacturing and services","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish below 50","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"ISM","reading":"","status":"na","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Not currently tracked.","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"sahm","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Sahm rule","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish at +0.50 or higher; watch at +0.30","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"FRED (SAHMREALTIME)","reading":"0.00","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-30","note":"Up 0.07 from the previous reading","history":[["2024-11-01",0.43],["2024-12-01",0.4],["2025-01-01",0.37],["2025-02-01",0.27],["2025-03-01",0.27],["2025-04-01",0.27],["2025-05-01",0.27],["2025-06-01",0.17],["2025-07-01",0.1],["2025-08-01",0.13],["2025-09-01",0.23],["2025-11-01",0.43],["2025-12-01",0.35],["2026-01-01",0.3],["2026-02-01",0.27],["2026-03-01",0.2],["2026-04-01",0.13],["2026-05-01",0.1],["2026-06-01",0.07],["2026-07-01",-0.03],["2026-08-01",-0.07],["2026-09-01",0.0]],"stale":false},{"id":"claims","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Initial jobless claims","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when the 4-week average is 20% above its 1-year low","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"US DOL via FRED (ICSA)","reading":"197K","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-10-03","note":"4-week average 198K, 0% above its 1-year low","history":[["2024-10-12",241000.0],["2024-10-19",227000.0],["2024-10-26",219000.0],["2024-11-02",221000.0],["2024-11-09",218000.0],["2024-11-16",216000.0],["2024-11-23",219000.0],["2024-11-30",222000.0],["2024-12-07",238000.0],["2024-12-14",222000.0],["2024-12-21",219000.0],["2024-12-28",212000.0],["2025-01-04",206000.0],["2025-01-11",219000.0],["2025-01-18",223000.0],["2025-01-25",212000.0],["2025-02-01",220000.0],["2025-02-08",216000.0],["2025-02-15",223000.0],["2025-02-22",241000.0],["2025-03-01",224000.0],["2025-03-08",222000.0],["2025-03-15",225000.0],["2025-03-22",224000.0],["2025-03-29",220000.0],["2025-04-05",223000.0],["2025-04-12",217000.0],["2025-04-19",224000.0],["2025-04-26",239000.0],["2025-05-03",228000.0],["2025-05-10",226000.0],["2025-05-17",225000.0],["2025-05-24",236000.0],["2025-05-31",244000.0],["2025-06-07",246000.0],["2025-06-14",243000.0],["2025-06-21",236000.0],["2025-06-28",231000.0],["2025-07-05",228000.0],["2025-07-12",221000.0],["2025-07-19",218000.0],["2025-07-26",219000.0],["2025-08-02",226000.0],["2025-08-09",224000.0],["2025-08-16",233000.0],["2025-08-23",229000.0],["2025-08-30",236000.0],["2025-09-06",259000.0],["2025-09-13",233000.0],["2025-09-20",219000.0],["2025-09-27",225000.0],["2025-10-04",233000.0],["2025-10-11",222000.0],["2025-10-18",231000.0],["2025-10-25",221000.0],["2025-11-01",228000.0],["2025-11-08",228000.0],["2025-11-15",222000.0],["2025-11-22",218000.0],["2025-11-29",216000.0],["2025-12-06",235000.0],["2025-12-13",224000.0],["2025-12-20",215000.0],["2025-12-27",203000.0],["2026-01-03",207000.0],["2026-01-10",201000.0],["2026-01-17",210000.0],["2026-01-24",211000.0],["2026-01-31",230000.0],["2026-02-07",230000.0],["2026-02-14",208000.0],["2026-02-21",211000.0],["2026-02-28",214000.0],["2026-03-07",213000.0],["2026-03-14",205000.0],["2026-03-21",211000.0],["2026-03-28",203000.0],["2026-04-04",218000.0],["2026-04-11",208000.0],["2026-04-18",215000.0],["2026-04-25",190000.0],["2026-05-02",199000.0],["2026-05-09",212000.0],["2026-05-16",210000.0],["2026-05-23",212000.0],["2026-05-30",225000.0],["2026-06-06",230000.0],["2026-06-13",227000.0],["2026-06-20",216000.0],["2026-06-27",217000.0],["2026-07-04",217000.0],["2026-07-11",209000.0],["2026-07-18",189000.0],["2026-07-25",198000.0],["2026-08-01",200000.0],["2026-08-08",212000.0],["2026-08-15",207000.0],["2026-08-22",204000.0],["2026-08-29",207000.0],["2026-09-05",207000.0],["2026-09-12",198000.0],["2026-09-19",198000.0],["2026-09-26",199000.0],["2026-10-03",197000.0]],"stale":false},{"id":"oil","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Oil price momentum (WTI)","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when up more than 30% in a year; watch above 10%","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"US EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO)","reading":"+54% YoY","status":"bear","asOf":"2026-10-06","note":"WTI spot, change over one year; +35% over 3 months","history":[["2024-10-15",-17.8073],["2024-10-21",-20.1526],["2024-10-25",-14.0573],["2024-10-31",-14.1518],["2024-11-06",-7.6706],["2024-11-13",-12.8517],["2024-11-19",-10.6914],["2024-11-25",-7.2431],["2024-12-02",-7.2592],["2024-12-06",-0.6087],["2024-12-12",1.679],["2024-12-18",-3.3183],["2024-12-24",-3.302],["2024-12-31",0.7651],["2025-01-07",5.5305],["2025-01-14",7.2114],["2025-01-21",2.033],["2025-01-27",-6.297],["2025-01-31",-2.0441],["2025-02-06",-4.4304],["2025-02-12",-8.3802],["2025-02-19",-7.7998],["2025-02-25",-11.9445],["2025-03-03",-15.1669],["2025-03-07",-15.6873],["2025-03-13",-17.1687],["2025-03-19",-20.1327],["2025-03-25",-15.6898],["2025-03-31",-14.3997],["2025-04-04",-28.5567],["2025-04-10",-30.3633],["2025-04-16",-27.011],["2025-04-23",-25.5792],["2025-04-29",-26.6081],["2025-05-05",-26.5537],["2025-05-09",-22.8667],["2025-05-15",-21.4384],["2025-05-21",-21.9812],["2025-05-28",-22.6947],["2025-06-03",-14.8286],["2025-06-09",-13.7724],["2025-06-13",-7.2478],["2025-06-20",-9.1433],["2025-06-26",-19.1629],["2025-07-02",-18.3494],["2025-07-09",-15.9096],["2025-07-15",-18.5773],["2025-07-21",-16.0138],["2025-07-25",-16.4296],["2025-07-31",-11.3407],["2025-08-06",-12.3592],["2025-08-12",-21.1541],["2025-08-18",-17.3479],["2025-08-22",-13.0765],["2025-08-28",-13.9489],["2025-09-04",-8.9859],["2025-09-10",-4.0761],["2025-09-16",-8.7342],["2025-09-22",-13.3801],["2025-09-26",-2.6069],["2025-10-02",-13.3729],["2025-10-08",-14.6647],["2025-10-15",-17.0458],["2025-10-21",-17.566],["2025-10-27",-13.7323],["2025-10-31",-11.2532],["2025-11-06",-16.3101],["2025-11-13",-13.409],["2025-11-19",-13.5914],["2025-11-25",-16.0784],["2025-12-02",-13.9576],["2025-12-08",-13.9108],["2025-12-12",-17.9929],["2025-12-18",-20.5932],["2025-12-24",-17.1441],["2025-12-31",-20.9553],["2026-01-07",-25.31],["2026-01-13",-23.5265],["2026-01-20",-23.2434],["2026-01-26",-19.3544],["2026-01-30",-11.7647],["2026-02-05",-11.8924],["2026-02-11",-12.0402],["2026-02-18",-9.5278],["2026-02-24",-7.6555],["2026-03-02",1.6579],["2026-03-06",36.2504],["2026-03-12",41.3304],["2026-03-18",42.4211],["2026-03-24",34.1492],["2026-03-30",50.1147],["2026-04-06",82.6498],["2026-04-10",62.3576],["2026-04-16",53.4033],["2026-04-22",46.6873],["2026-04-28",63.4281],["2026-05-04",83.945],["2026-05-08",61.4204],["2026-05-14",62.3139],["2026-05-20",58.9651],["2026-05-27",49.8945],["2026-06-02",54.0541],["2026-06-08",45.4824],["2026-06-12",28.9393],["2026-06-18",5.8769],["2026-06-25",10.1394],["2026-07-01",4.6519],["2026-07-08",7.2035],["2026-07-14",17.9645],["2026-07-20",23.1286],["2026-07-24",36.5992],["2026-07-30",19.7777],["2026-08-05",15.9819],["2026-08-11",30.3552],["2026-08-17",34.9012],["2026-08-21",35.0836],["2026-08-27",31.5088],["2026-09-02",39.7271],["2026-09-09",54.4545],["2026-09-15",68.1118],["2026-09-21",53.8718],["2026-09-25",30.1023],["2026-10-01",59.4025],["2026-10-06",54.0086]],"stale":false},{"id":"infl","cat":"Earnings & economy","name":"Inflation (CPI)","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when core ≥3.5% or headline ≥4%","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"US BLS via FRED","reading":"CPI 3.4% · core 2.4%","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-08-31","note":"Core 3-month annualized 2.0%","history":[["2024-11-01",3.29],["2024-12-01",3.21],["2025-01-01",3.28],["2025-02-01",3.14],["2025-03-01",2.81],["2025-04-01",2.78],["2025-05-01",2.77],["2025-06-01",2.91],["2025-07-01",3.05],["2025-08-01",3.11],["2025-09-01",3.02],["2025-11-01",2.6],["2025-12-01",2.65],["2026-01-01",2.51],["2026-02-01",2.47],["2026-03-01",2.6],["2026-04-01",2.74],["2026-05-01",2.82],["2026-06-01",2.57],["2026-07-01",2.47],["2026-08-01",2.45]],"stale":false},{"id":"breadth","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"Stocks above 200-day average","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when falling as the index rises","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"Not sourced","reading":"","status":"na","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Not currently tracked.","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"eqw","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"Equal-weight vs. cap-weight S&P","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when equal-weight lags badly","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"ETF prices","reading":"","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Equal-weight is lagging the cap-weighted index.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"small","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"Small caps confirming highs","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish when failing to confirm","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"ETF prices","reading":"","status":"bear","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Small caps are further from their highs than the S&P 500.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"momentum","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"Index trend","role":"trigger","rule":"Bullish near highs, above the 200-day","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"S&P DJI","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-23","note":"The index is near record highs.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"vix","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"VIX","role":"trigger","rule":"Watch when very low (complacency)","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"Cboe","reading":"","status":"watch","asOf":"2026-09-22","note":"Implied volatility is low, a sign of calm or complacency.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"pc","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"Put/call ratio","role":"trigger","rule":"Bearish at extreme lows","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"Cboe","reading":"","status":"bear","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Equity put/call is low, meaning heavy call buying.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"aaii","cat":"Sentiment & technicals","name":"AAII investor sentiment","role":"trigger","rule":"Contrarian: bullish when bears dominate","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"AAII","reading":"","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-23","note":"Individual investors lean bearish, which is a contrarian positive.","stale":false,"hidden_value":true},{"id":"mmfpool","cat":"Flows","name":"Money market fund assets","role":"flow","rule":"Bullish as a growing pool that can move into stocks","mode":"auto","license":"public","source":"Federal Reserve Z.1 via FRED","reading":"$8.44T","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-06-30","note":"+13% from a year earlier; Fed Z.1, quarter-end","history":[["2024-01-01",6440700.0],["2024-04-01",6548352.0],["2024-07-01",6839054.0],["2024-10-01",7243180.0],["2025-01-01",7397905.0],["2025-04-01",7481232.0],["2025-07-01",7774054.0],["2025-10-01",8190235.0],["2026-01-01",8289569.0],["2026-04-01",8441374.0]],"stale":false},{"id":"buybacks","cat":"Flows","name":"Corporate buybacks","role":"flow","rule":"Bullish when strong","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"S&P DJI","reading":"","status":"na","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Not currently tracked.","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"retire","cat":"Flows","name":"Retirement account inflows","role":"flow","rule":"Bullish as steady automatic buying","mode":"manual","license":"public","source":"General","reading":"Steady","status":"bull","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Structural automatic inflows","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"foreign","cat":"Flows","name":"Foreign demand for US assets","role":"flow","rule":"Bullish when strong","mode":"manual","license":"public","source":"US Treasury TIC","reading":"","status":"na","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Treasury TIC data not reachable","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"insider","cat":"Flows","name":"Insider selling","role":"flow","rule":"Bearish when heavy","mode":"manual","license":"restricted","source":"Not sourced","reading":"","status":"na","asOf":"2026-09-24","note":"Not currently tracked.","stale":false,"hidden_value":false},{"id":"ipo","cat":"Flows","name":"IPO and speculative issuance","role":"flow","rule":"Bearish on a surge of unprofitable 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/ Silver","pair":"oz silver per oz gold","group":"Metals","freq":"Monthly","license":"public","asOf":"2026-09-01","pctile":39,"z5":-1.47,"chg_3m":5.5,"chg_1y":-22.0,"years":20,"unit":"","value":66.8576,"tag":"Neutral","read":"An ounce of gold buys 67 ounces of silver, the 39th percentile of the past 20 years and rising over 3 months. Neither haven demand nor industrial demand dominates.","p10":51.6069,"p90":86.9545,"history":[["2006-09-01",51.1111],["2006-10-01",50.5172],["2006-11-01",48.6822],["2006-12-01",47.3684],["2007-01-01",49.2969],["2007-02-01",47.8417],["2007-03-01",49.6212],["2007-04-01",49.562],["2007-05-01",50.916],["2007-06-01",50.0763],["2007-07-01",51.5504],["2007-08-01",54.065],["2007-09-01",55.7031],["2007-10-01",55.1095],["2007-11-01",54.8299],["2007-12-01",56.1538],["2008-01-01",55.9748],["2008-02-01",52.3864],["2008-03-01",50.1554],["2008-04-01",52.0],["2008-05-01",51.9883],["2008-06-01",52.2941],["2008-07-01",52.2222],["2008-08-01",57.4658],["2008-09-01",66.9355],["2008-10-01",77.5962],["2008-11-01",76.8687],["2008-12-01",79.2233],["2009-01-01",76.0177],["2009-02-01",70.3731],["2009-03-01",70.5344],["2009-04-01",71.2],["2009-05-01",66.3571],["2009-06-01",64.3537],["2009-07-01",69.7015],["2009-08-01",65.9028],["2009-09-01",60.7927],["2009-10-01",60.6395],["2009-11-01",63.3146],["2009-12-01",64.4886],["2010-01-01",63.1638],["2010-02-01",68.8679],["2010-03-01",65.0877],["2010-04-01",63.4807],["2010-05-01",65.4891],["2010-06-01",66.6486],["2010-07-01",66.2778],["2010-08-01",66.087],["2010-09-01",62.0],["2010-10-01",57.3504],["2010-11-01",51.6981],["2010-12-01",47.4744],["2011-01-01",47.7193],["2011-02-01",44.6429],["2011-03-01",39.7486],["2011-04-01",34.6838],["2011-05-01",40.563],["2011-06-01",42.7095],["2011-07-01",41.504],["2011-08-01",43.6476],["2011-09-01",46.3874],["2011-10-01",52.0625],["2011-11-01",52.5378],["2011-12-01",54.1254],["2012-01-01",53.8762],["2012-02-01",51.173],["2012-03-01",50.7879],["2012-04-01",52.3492],["2012-05-01",55.3659],["2012-06-01",57.1071],["2012-07-01",58.1752],["2012-08-01",56.5972],["2012-09-01",51.9345],["2012-10-01",52.6205],["2012-11-01",52.5],["2012-12-01",52.8213],["2013-01-01",53.7621],["2013-02-01",53.7294],["2013-03-01",55.3125],["2013-04-01",58.5827],["2013-05-01",61.4783],["2013-06-01",63.6493],["2013-07-01",65.2792],["2013-08-01",61.7352],["2013-09-01",59.6903],["2013-10-01",60.137],["2013-11-01",61.3462],["2013-12-01",62.0305],["2014-01-01",62.5126],["2014-02-01",62.5],["2014-03-01",64.5411],["2014-04-01",65.8883],["2014-05-01",66.7876],["2014-06-01",64.2714],["2014-07-01",62.7273],["2014-08-01",65.736],["2014-09-01",67.2283],["2014-10-01",71.0465],["2014-11-01",73.4375],["2014-12-01",73.681],["2015-01-01",72.7326],["2015-02-01",73.0357],["2015-03-01",72.7778],["2015-04-01",73.5583],["2015-05-01",71.369],["2015-06-01",73.4161],["2015-07-01",74.702],["2015-08-01",75.0336],["2015-09-01",76.0135],["2015-10-01",73.3544],["2015-11-01",74.8966],["2015-12-01",76.3121],["2016-01-01",77.8723],["2016-02-01",78.9474],["2016-03-01",80.3226],["2016-04-01",75.7317],["2016-05-01",74.6154],["2016-06-01",73.7572],["2016-07-01",66.85],["2016-08-01",68.3673],["2016-09-01",68.4021],["2016-10-01",71.5819],["2016-11-01",71.1494],["2016-12-01",70.5488],["2017-01-01",70.5325],["2017-02-01",68.9385],["2017-03-01",69.9432],["2017-04-01",70.3889],["2017-05-01",74.6108],["2017-06-01",74.5562],["2017-07-01",76.358],["2017-08-01",75.4706],["2017-09-01",75.5172],["2017-10-01",75.7396],["2017-11-01",75.4118],["2017-12-01",78.0247],["2018-01-01",77.8363],["2018-02-01",80.1807],["2018-03-01",80.303],["2018-04-01",80.4217],["2018-05-01",78.9697],["2018-06-01",77.697],["2018-07-01",78.8535],["2018-08-01",80.1333],["2018-09-01",83.7762],["2018-10-01",83.2192],["2018-11-01",84.7917],["2018-12-01",84.4595],["2019-01-01",82.8205],["2019-02-01",83.5443],["2019-03-01",85.0327],["2019-04-01",85.1656],["2019-05-01",87.3469],["2019-06-01",90.6],["2019-07-01",89.4304],["2019-08-01",87.2093],["2019-09-01",83.022],["2019-10-01",84.9432],["2019-11-01",85.5233],["2019-12-01",86.4912],["2020-01-01",86.7222],["2020-02-01",89.2179],["2020-03-01",106.8456],["2020-04-01",111.457],["2020-05-01",105.2761],["2020-06-01",97.8531],["2020-07-01",89.6602],["2020-08-01",72.9259],["2020-09-01",74.786],["2020-10-01",78.5124],["2020-11-01",77.4274],["2020-12-01",74.32],["2021-01-01",72.0849],["2021-02-01",66.2271],["2021-03-01",67.1094],["2021-04-01",68.4825],["2021-05-01",67.2727],["2021-06-01",67.963],["2021-07-01",70.3502],["2021-08-01",74.375],["2021-09-01",76.5086],["2021-10-01",75.9402],["2021-11-01",75.2893],["2021-12-01",79.5556],["2022-01-01",78.2759],["2022-02-01",78.9787],["2022-03-01",76.996],["2022-04-01",79.0612],["2022-05-01",84.4292],["2022-06-01",85.0463],["2022-07-01",90.733],["2022-08-01",89.5939],["2022-09-01",88.9418],["2022-10-01",85.7732],["2022-11-01",82.1429],["2022-12-01",77.1674],["2023-01-01",80.0844],["2023-02-01",84.7032],["2023-03-01",86.9545],["2023-04-01",80.0],["2023-05-01",81.9753],["2023-06-01",83.0342],["2023-07-01",80.2881],["2023-08-01",82.0085],["2023-09-01",82.9437],["2023-10-01",85.5357],["2023-11-01",84.4255],["2023-12-01",84.7699],["2024-01-01",88.821],["2024-02-01",89.1189],["2024-03-01",88.0816],["2024-04-01",84.7636],["2024-05-01",79.966],["2024-06-01",78.5811],["2024-07-01",80.4698],["2024-08-01",86.6667],["2024-09-01",85.4153],["2024-10-01",83.0247],["2024-11-01",85.2412],["2024-12-01",85.974],["2025-01-01",89.1447],["2025-02-01",89.9068],["2025-03-01",89.8494],["2025-04-01",99.9379],["2025-05-01",100.8841],["2025-06-01",93.1389],["2025-07-01",88.5942],["2025-08-01",88.1675],["2025-09-01",85.7009],["2025-10-01",82.1457],["2025-11-01",81.0913],["2025-12-01",69.1653],["2026-01-01",51.6069],["2026-02-01",61.2943],["2026-03-01",62.3363],["2026-04-01",62.2003],["2026-05-01",58.8077],["2026-06-01",63.3883],["2026-07-01",69.2687],["2026-08-01",67.4465],["2026-09-01",66.8576]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"copper_gold","name":"Copper / Gold","pair":"copper $/lb ÷ gold $/oz, growth vs safety","group":"Metals","freq":"Monthly","license":"public","asOf":"2026-09-01","pctile":11,"z5":-0.67,"chg_3m":4.6,"chg_1y":23.1,"years":20,"unit":"×1000","value":1.5201,"tag":"Growth scare","read":"Copper relative to gold is at the 11th percentile of 20 years and rising over 3 months. Safety is being priced ahead of growth.","p10":1.5082,"p90":3.5987,"history":[["2006-09-01",5.7662],["2006-10-01",5.8054],["2006-11-01",5.0769],["2006-12-01",4.8059],["2007-01-01",4.0759],["2007-02-01",3.8716],["2007-03-01",4.4681],["2007-04-01",5.1879],["2007-05-01",5.2235],["2007-06-01",5.1679],["2007-07-01",5.4383],["2007-08-01",5.1253],["2007-09-01",4.8661],["2007-10-01",4.8111],["2007-11-01",3.9208],["2007-12-01",3.7214],["2008-01-01",3.5987],["2008-02-01",3.8806],["2008-03-01",3.9544],["2008-04-01",4.3291],["2008-05-01",4.2772],["2008-06-01",4.215],["2008-07-01",4.0601],["2008-08-01",4.1277],["2008-09-01",3.8206],["2008-10-01",2.7688],["2008-11-01",2.2155],["2008-12-01",1.7076],["2009-01-01",1.7008],["2009-02-01",1.5945],["2009-03-01",1.8409],["2009-04-01",2.246],["2009-05-01",2.2309],["2009-06-01",2.4041],["2009-07-01",2.5331],["2009-08-01",2.9467],["2009-09-01",2.8189],["2009-10-01",2.7346],["2009-11-01",2.6869],["2009-12-01",2.7903],["2010-01-01",2.9966],["2010-02-01",2.8367],["2010-03-01",3.0415],["2010-04-01",3.0575],["2010-05-01",2.574],["2010-06-01",2.3908],["2010-07-01",2.5607],["2010-08-01",2.7171],["2010-09-01",2.7512],["2010-10-01",2.8027],["2010-11-01",2.8043],["2010-12-01",2.9828],["2011-01-01",3.1872],["2011-02-01",3.2553],["2011-03-01",3.0292],["2011-04-01",2.9075],["2011-05-01",2.6862],["2011-06-01",2.6898],["2011-07-01",2.7827],["2011-08-01",2.3211],["2011-09-01",2.1246],["2011-10-01",2.0131],["2011-11-01",1.9774],["2011-12-01",2.0923],["2012-01-01",2.2049],["2012-02-01",2.1941],["2012-03-01",2.2926],["2012-04-01",2.2801],["2012-05-01",2.2711],["2012-06-01",2.1057],["2012-07-01",2.1581],["2012-08-01",2.0915],["2012-09-01",2.1024],["2012-10-01",2.0932],["2012-11-01",2.0312],["2012-12-01",2.1444],["2013-01-01",2.1831],["2013-02-01",2.246],["2013-03-01",2.1771],["2013-04-01",2.2052],["2013-05-01",2.3254],["2013-06-01",2.3642],["2013-07-01",2.4362],["2013-08-01",2.4132],["2013-09-01",2.4072],["2013-10-01",2.4808],["2013-11-01",2.5136],["2013-12-01",2.6781],["2014-01-01",2.6585],["2014-02-01",2.4944],["2014-03-01",2.2578],["2014-04-01",2.3323],["2014-05-01",2.4249],["2014-06-01",2.419],["2014-07-01",2.461],["2014-08-01",2.4526],["2014-09-01",2.5199],["2014-10-01",2.5007],["2014-11-01",2.5915],["2014-12-01",2.4345],["2015-01-01",2.1142],["2015-02-01",2.1179],["2015-03-01",2.2853],["2015-04-01",2.2857],["2015-05-01",2.3815],["2015-06-01",2.2384],["2015-07-01",2.1944],["2015-08-01",2.0801],["2015-09-01",2.1035],["2015-10-01",2.0414],["2015-11-01",2.0048],["2015-12-01",1.9556],["2016-01-01",1.8474],["2016-02-01",1.7384],["2016-03-01",1.8049],["2016-04-01",1.7797],["2016-05-01",1.6888],["2016-06-01",1.6501],["2016-07-01",1.6505],["2016-08-01",1.6086],["2016-09-01",1.6141],["2016-10-01",1.6937],["2016-11-01",1.9972],["2016-12-01",2.219],["2017-01-01",2.19],["2017-02-01",2.1838],["2017-03-01",2.1464],["2017-04-01",2.0349],["2017-05-01",2.0386],["2017-06-01",2.0592],["2017-07-01",2.1946],["2017-08-01",2.2931],["2017-09-01",2.2704],["2017-10-01",2.4125],["2017-11-01",2.4155],["2017-12-01",2.4524],["2018-01-01",2.408],["2018-02-01",2.3879],["2018-03-01",2.3275],["2018-04-01",2.3281],["2018-05-01",2.3759],["2018-06-01",2.4647],["2018-07-01",2.2903],["2018-08-01",2.2834],["2018-09-01",2.2911],["2018-10-01",2.3221],["2018-11-01",2.3018],["2018-12-01",2.2045],["2019-01-01",2.0851],["2019-02-01",2.1649],["2019-03-01",2.245],["2019-04-01",2.2708],["2019-05-01",2.126],["2019-06-01",1.9632],["2019-07-01",1.9071],["2019-08-01",1.7264],["2019-09-01",1.7288],["2019-10-01",1.7467],["2019-11-01",1.807],["2019-12-01",1.8637],["2020-01-01",1.7525],["2020-02-01",1.6156],["2020-03-01",1.4767],["2020-04-01",1.3632],["2020-05-01",1.3851],["2020-06-01",1.5072],["2020-07-01",1.5649],["2020-08-01",1.4972],["2020-09-01",1.5824],["2020-10-01",1.6029],["2020-11-01",1.7184],["2020-12-01",1.8974],["2021-01-01",1.9368],["2021-02-01",2.1252],["2021-03-01",2.373],["2021-04-01",2.4033],["2021-05-01",2.4916],["2021-06-01",2.3809],["2021-07-01",2.3711],["2021-08-01",2.381],["2021-09-01",2.383],["2021-10-01",2.5089],["2021-11-01",2.4221],["2021-12-01",2.4203],["2022-01-01",2.4433],["2022-02-01",2.43],["2022-03-01",2.3823],["2022-04-01",2.3794],["2022-05-01",2.3003],["2022-06-01",2.2282],["2022-07-01",1.9748],["2022-08-01",2.0513],["2022-09-01",2.0901],["2022-10-01",2.0856],["2022-11-01",2.1168],["2022-12-01",2.1128],["2023-01-01",2.1599],["2023-02-01",2.1853],["2023-03-01",2.0999],["2023-04-01",1.9978],["2023-05-01",1.8711],["2023-06-01",1.9603],["2023-07-01",1.9708],["2023-08-01",1.9734],["2023-09-01",1.9595],["2023-10-01",1.879],["2023-11-01",1.8724],["2023-12-01",1.8806],["2024-01-01",1.8596],["2024-02-01",1.8621],["2024-03-01",1.8264],["2024-04-01",1.8416],["2024-05-01",1.9562],["2024-06-01",1.8815],["2024-07-01",1.7752],["2024-08-01",1.6476],["2024-09-01",1.6297],["2024-10-01",1.6076],["2024-11-01",1.5529],["2024-12-01",1.5273],["2025-01-01",1.5049],["2025-02-01",1.462],["2025-03-01",1.4811],["2025-04-01",1.2935],["2025-05-01",1.3068],["2025-06-01",1.3305],["2025-07-01",1.327],["2025-08-01",1.3023],["2025-09-01",1.2346],["2025-10-01",1.2005],["2025-11-01",1.2],["2025-12-01",1.2406],["2026-01-01",1.2418],["2026-02-01",1.1702],["2026-03-01",1.1703],["2026-04-01",1.2443],["2026-05-01",1.3392],["2026-06-01",1.4539],["2026-07-01",1.5082],["2026-08-01",1.4732],["2026-09-01",1.5201]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"gold_oil","name":"Gold / Oil","pair":"barrels of WTI per oz gold","group":"Cross-commodity","freq":"Monthly","license":"public","asOf":"2026-09-01","pctile":89,"z5":0.56,"chg_3m":-13.7,"chg_1y":-22.6,"years":20,"unit":"","value":44.5717,"tag":"Growth fears","read":"An ounce of gold buys 44.6 barrels of WTI, the 89th percentile of 20 years and falling over 3 months. Gold is expensive against oil, typical of haven demand or weak energy demand.","p10":11.2142,"p90":45.2696,"history":[["2006-09-01",9.373],["2006-10-01",9.9491],["2006-11-01",10.6261],["2006-12-01",10.1613],["2007-01-01",11.6421],["2007-02-01",11.2142],["2007-03-01",10.8086],["2007-04-01",10.626],["2007-05-01",10.5039],["2007-06-01",9.7185],["2007-07-01",8.9744],["2007-08-01",9.1851],["2007-09-01",8.9237],["2007-10-01",8.7893],["2007-11-01",8.5021],["2007-12-01",8.7856],["2008-01-01",9.5699],["2008-02-01",9.6646],["2008-03-01",9.1754],["2008-04-01",8.0817],["2008-05-01",7.112],["2008-06-01",6.6393],["2008-07-01",7.0465],["2008-08-01",7.1955],["2008-09-01",7.9885],["2008-10-01",10.5352],["2008-11-01",13.281],["2008-12-01",19.7101],["2009-01-01",20.5995],["2009-02-01",24.0561],["2009-03-01",19.4526],["2009-04-01",17.8715],["2009-05-01",15.7191],["2009-06-01",13.592],["2009-07-01",14.571],["2009-08-01",13.3474],["2009-09-01",14.366],["2009-10-01",13.7599],["2009-11-01",14.4487],["2009-12-01",15.2349],["2010-01-01",14.2602],["2010-02-01",14.3325],["2010-03-01",13.69],["2010-04-01",13.5976],["2010-05-01",16.3501],["2010-06-01",16.3528],["2010-07-01",15.6152],["2010-08-01",15.8747],["2010-09-01",16.8792],["2010-10-01",16.3858],["2010-11-01",16.2708],["2010-12-01",15.6117],["2011-01-01",15.2125],["2011-02-01",15.3631],["2011-03-01",13.829],["2011-04-01",13.4636],["2011-05-01",14.9358],["2011-06-01",15.8775],["2011-07-01",16.1665],["2011-08-01",20.3824],["2011-09-01",20.7009],["2011-10-01",19.2824],["2011-11-01",17.9094],["2011-12-01",16.6329],["2012-01-01",16.4905],["2012-02-01",17.0744],["2012-03-01",15.7815],["2012-04-01",15.9632],["2012-05-01",16.7793],["2012-06-01",19.4053],["2012-07-01",18.1342],["2012-08-01",17.322],["2012-09-01",18.4656],["2012-10-01",19.5196],["2012-11-01",19.8616],["2012-12-01",19.1043],["2013-01-01",17.6558],["2013-02-01",17.0829],["2013-03-01",17.1475],["2013-04-01",16.1739],["2013-05-01",14.9156],["2013-06-01",14.0188],["2013-07-01",12.2827],["2013-08-01",12.6948],["2013-09-01",12.7024],["2013-10-01",13.1045],["2013-11-01",13.5889],["2013-12-01",12.4821],["2014-01-01",13.1085],["2014-02-01",12.9096],["2014-03-01",13.2803],["2014-04-01",12.713],["2014-05-01",12.6497],["2014-06-01",12.1578],["2014-07-01",12.7405],["2014-08-01",13.4336],["2014-09-01",13.2725],["2014-10-01",14.4787],["2014-11-01",15.5013],["2014-12-01",20.253],["2015-01-01",26.4482],["2015-02-01",24.249],["2015-03-01",24.6653],["2015-04-01",22.0404],["2015-05-01",20.2192],["2015-06-01",19.7659],["2015-07-01",22.1611],["2015-08-01",26.0606],["2015-09-01",24.7253],["2015-10-01",25.0866],["2015-11-01",25.4333],["2015-12-01",28.9247],["2016-01-01",34.8571],["2016-02-01",39.4737],["2016-03-01",32.9365],["2016-04-01",30.2927],["2016-05-01",27.0021],["2016-06-01",26.1475],["2016-07-01",29.9105],["2016-08-01",29.9107],["2016-09-01",29.3584],["2016-10-01",25.3908],["2016-11-01",27.1491],["2016-12-01",22.25],["2017-01-01",22.7048],["2017-02-01",23.1086],["2017-03-01",24.8185],["2017-04-01",24.7945],["2017-05-01",25.6907],["2017-06-01",27.8761],["2017-07-01",26.4882],["2017-08-01",26.7292],["2017-09-01",26.3855],["2017-10-01",24.8062],["2017-11-01",22.6102],["2017-12-01",21.8307],["2018-01-01",20.8948],["2018-02-01",21.3987],["2018-03-01",21.0987],["2018-04-01",20.1357],["2018-05-01",18.6143],["2018-06-01",18.9926],["2018-07-01",17.4859],["2018-08-01",17.6765],["2018-09-01",17.0655],["2018-10-01",17.161],["2018-11-01",21.5344],["2018-12-01",25.5102],["2019-01-01",25.0874],["2019-02-01",24.0],["2019-03-01",22.354],["2019-04-01",20.1252],["2019-05-01",21.1184],["2019-06-01",24.8446],["2019-07-01",24.5739],["2019-08-01",27.3723],["2019-09-01",26.5088],["2019-10-01",27.6852],["2019-11-01",25.7618],["2019-12-01",24.7324],["2020-01-01",27.1478],["2020-02-01",31.6238],["2020-03-01",53.2441],["2020-04-01",102.0],["2020-05-01",60.0],["2020-06-01",45.2219],["2020-07-01",45.2696],["2020-08-01",46.4387],["2020-09-01",48.5354],["2020-10-01",48.1013],["2020-11-01",45.4015],["2020-12-01",39.448],["2021-01-01",35.8349],["2021-02-01",30.5922],["2021-03-01",27.5321],["2021-04-01",28.5251],["2021-05-01",28.3742],["2021-06-01",25.7003],["2021-07-01",24.9379],["2021-08-01",26.3663],["2021-09-01",24.7905],["2021-10-01",21.8573],["2021-11-01",23.0051],["2021-12-01",25.035],["2022-01-01",21.8532],["2022-02-01",20.2399],["2022-03-01",17.9539],["2022-04-01",19.0275],["2022-05-01",16.8704],["2022-06-01",16.0297],["2022-07-01",17.3473],["2022-08-01",19.2686],["2022-09-01",20.0358],["2022-10-01",19.0607],["2022-11-01",20.342],["2022-12-01",23.5033],["2023-01-01",24.3022],["2023-02-01",24.1536],["2023-03-01",26.0627],["2023-04-01",25.1889],["2023-05-01",27.8212],["2023-06-01",27.6781],["2023-07-01",25.5366],["2023-08-01",23.5749],["2023-09-01",21.3839],["2023-10-01",22.3832],["2023-11-01",25.6331],["2023-12-01",28.0999],["2024-01-01",27.5237],["2024-02-01",26.3755],["2024-03-01",26.8075],["2024-04-01",27.5532],["2024-05-01",29.835],["2024-06-01",29.4804],["2024-07-01",29.7888],["2024-08-01",32.672],["2024-09-01",36.9397],["2024-10-01",37.5698],["2024-11-01",38.0344],["2024-12-01",37.937],["2025-01-01",36.0852],["2025-02-01",40.6031],["2025-03-01",43.9971],["2025-04-01",50.9984],["2025-05-01",54.2459],["2025-06-01",49.6741],["2025-07-01",49.5549],["2025-08-01",52.5429],["2025-09-01",57.5824],["2025-10-01",67.4086],["2025-11-01",68.5738],["2025-12-01",74.4214],["2026-01-01",78.8226],["2026-02-01",77.709],["2026-03-01",53.2456],["2026-04-01",47.8803],["2026-05-01",46.2866],["2026-06-01",51.6239],["2026-07-01",51.2972],["2026-08-01",53.3374],["2026-09-01",44.5717]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"oil_gas","name":"Oil / Natural gas","pair":"WTI $/bbl ÷ Henry Hub $/MMBtu","group":"Energy","freq":"Daily","license":"public","asOf":"2026-10-06","pctile":86,"z5":0.56,"chg_3m":39.0,"chg_1y":68.7,"years":10,"unit":"","value":31.7624,"tag":"Gas cheap vs oil","read":"A barrel of WTI costs 31.8 times an MMBtu of Henry Hub gas (energy parity is about 5.8), the 86th percentile of 10 years. US gas is cheap relative to crude, which supports gas-fired power and LNG export margins.","p10":14.2606,"p90":33.9406,"history":[["2016-10-06",16.5921],["2016-10-20",16.125],["2016-11-03",18.5311],["2016-11-17",19.1435],["2016-12-02",15.0291],["2016-12-16",14.7949],["2017-01-03",15.3548],["2017-01-18",15.681],["2017-02-01",17.1111],["2017-02-15",18.0034],["2017-03-02",20.3205],["2017-03-16",17.007],["2017-03-30",16.3312],["2017-04-13",17.73],["2017-04-28",15.4094],["2017-05-12",14.7623],["2017-05-26",15.9935],["2017-06-12",14.7756],["2017-06-26",14.5101],["2017-07-12",15.1096],["2017-07-26",16.637],["2017-08-09",17.6477],["2017-08-23",16.4796],["2017-09-07",16.8151],["2017-09-21",16.2637],["2017-10-05",18.1393],["2017-10-19",18.1237],["2017-11-02",20.3545],["2017-11-16",17.8447],["2017-12-01",20.5458],["2017-12-15",22.0346],["2018-01-02",9.6747],["2018-01-18",16.3163],["2018-02-01",21.5425],["2018-02-15",24.6908],["2018-03-02",22.9176],["2018-03-16",23.7748],["2018-04-02",22.9273],["2018-04-16",22.9965],["2018-04-30",24.9309],["2018-05-14",25.0035],["2018-05-29",23.5211],["2018-06-12",22.2752],["2018-06-26",25.245],["2018-07-11",24.3841],["2018-07-25",25.2234],["2018-08-08",22.3813],["2018-08-22",22.4669],["2018-09-06",23.1433],["2018-09-20",23.0521],["2018-10-04",21.9587],["2018-10-18",20.9238],["2018-11-01",18.9494],["2018-11-15",12.0362],["2018-12-03",12.0409],["2018-12-17",13.1053],["2019-01-04",17.0571],["2019-01-18",15.6268],["2019-02-04",21.2335],["2019-02-19",20.8625],["2019-03-05",17.783],["2019-03-19",20.2466],["2019-04-02",22.6558],["2019-04-16",24.0639],["2019-05-01",24.5367],["2019-05-15",23.0595],["2019-05-30",20.9926],["2019-06-13",21.5556],["2019-06-27",25.5086],["2019-07-15",23.4387],["2019-07-29",25.4933],["2019-08-12",24.8778],["2019-08-26",24.009],["2019-09-10",21.4869],["2019-09-24",22.4392],["2019-10-08",22.9869],["2019-10-22",24.5294],["2019-11-05",20.5921],["2019-11-20",22.1523],["2019-12-05",24.1405],["2019-12-19",27.7376],["2020-01-06",30.1286],["2020-01-21",29.4192],["2020-02-04",26.2381],["2020-02-19",26.5224],["2020-03-04",25.5628],["2020-03-18",11.8382],["2020-04-01",12.0],["2020-04-16",12.4654],["2020-04-30",11.7975],["2020-05-14",17.125],["2020-05-29",20.9235],["2020-06-12",21.7006],["2020-06-26",27.1338],["2020-07-13",22.8914],["2020-07-27",22.4108],["2020-08-10",19.2385],["2020-08-24",16.5136],["2020-09-08",15.6894],["2020-09-22",26.5436],["2020-10-06",21.7849],["2020-10-20",16.0973],["2020-11-03",13.0],["2020-11-17",16.1725],["2020-12-03",18.5569],["2020-12-17",17.9037],["2021-01-04",18.2577],["2021-01-19",19.9509],["2021-02-02",16.9043],["2021-02-17",2.5604],["2021-03-03",21.4441],["2021-03-17",24.8269],["2021-03-31",23.4881],["2021-04-15",24.2061],["2021-04-29",22.3368],["2021-05-13",21.6339],["2021-05-27",23.4632],["2021-06-11",21.9814],["2021-06-25",21.8265],["2021-07-12",20.0568],["2021-07-26",17.6406],["2021-08-09",15.6981],["2021-08-23",16.7048],["2021-09-07",14.5414],["2021-09-21",14.2157],["2021-10-05",12.4286],["2021-10-19",17.2952],["2021-11-02",15.743],["2021-11-16",15.8043],["2021-12-02",16.3235],["2021-12-16",19.7112],["2021-12-31",19.7199],["2022-01-14",19.1808],["2022-01-31",16.036],["2022-02-14",23.5852],["2022-03-01",23.7752],["2022-03-15",21.6188],["2022-03-29",19.5959],["2022-04-12",15.2534],["2022-04-27",14.7554],["2022-05-11",14.0106],["2022-05-25",11.9576],["2022-06-09",14.8922],["2022-06-24",18.8052],["2022-07-11",15.5557],["2022-07-25",11.7171],["2022-08-08",12.0515],["2022-08-22",9.4843],["2022-09-06",10.2523],["2022-09-20",10.573],["2022-10-04",16.087],["2022-10-19",15.2753],["2022-11-02",19.6638],["2022-11-16",14.5612],["2022-12-01",12.8057],["2022-12-15",11.1603],["2022-12-30",22.7727],["2023-01-17",23.3965],["2023-01-31",29.7925],["2023-02-14",32.6777],["2023-03-01",29.9498],["2023-03-15",27.502],["2023-03-29",37.6031],["2023-04-13",40.2745],["2023-04-27",34.4562],["2023-05-11",34.2077],["2023-05-25",32.1435],["2023-06-09",37.9243],["2023-06-26",26.3702],["2023-07-11",29.1323],["2023-07-25",29.985],["2023-08-08",29.9422],["2023-08-22",31.1047],["2023-09-06",35.1606],["2023-09-20",32.0863],["2023-10-04",28.8767],["2023-10-19",31.4613],["2023-11-02",26.6154],["2023-11-17",29.187],["2023-12-04",28.5216],["2023-12-18",27.861],["2024-01-03",28.393],["2024-01-18",25.8056],["2024-02-01",34.586],["2024-02-15",51.2876],["2024-03-01",55.034],["2024-03-15",59.3768],["2024-04-01",51.5488],["2024-04-15",61.1418],["2024-04-29",54.3613],["2024-05-13",38.2512],["2024-05-28",35.3275],["2024-06-11",29.107],["2024-06-26",33.5469],["2024-07-11",37.6323],["2024-07-25",39.715],["2024-08-08",41.9676],["2024-08-22",38.1969],["2024-09-06",32.8134],["2024-09-20",33.0545],["2024-10-04",30.0924],["2024-10-21",40.4318],["2024-11-04",53.2074],["2024-11-19",33.2143],["2024-12-04",25.0218],["2024-12-18",23.5216],["2025-01-03",21.9529],["2025-01-21",17.4523],["2025-02-04",22.4738],["2025-02-19",10.151],["2025-03-05",15.1318],["2025-03-19",16.0095],["2025-04-02",17.8515],["2025-04-16",19.3477],["2025-05-01",19.6721],["2025-05-15",19.6969],["2025-05-30",21.4895],["2025-06-13",27.8642],["2025-06-30",20.3374],["2025-07-15",20.4713],["2025-07-29",22.8149],["2025-08-12",21.9181],["2025-08-26",22.5532],["2025-09-10",22.1488],["2025-09-24",22.7083],["2025-10-08",18.9164],["2025-10-23",18.6946],["2025-11-06",16.2372],["2025-11-21",14.2518],["2025-12-09",12.2689],["2025-12-23",17.3225],["2026-01-12",20.4793],["2026-01-27",3.6091],["2026-02-10",20.1887],["2026-02-25",21.6225],["2026-03-11",27.5556],["2026-03-25",31.1259],["2026-04-09",35.8345],["2026-04-23",37.4604],["2026-05-07",36.437],["2026-05-21",31.9108],["2026-06-05",30.9246],["2026-06-22",24.981],["2026-07-07",22.853],["2026-07-21",30.7286],["2026-08-04",28.2226],["2026-08-18",30.6667],["2026-09-01",31.5448],["2026-09-16",34.54],["2026-09-30",32.1788],["2026-10-06",31.7624]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"brent_wti","name":"Brent vs WTI","pair":"Brent premium over WTI, %","group":"Energy","freq":"Daily","license":"public","asOf":"2026-10-06","pctile":100,"z5":6.15,"chg_3m":30.0,"chg_1y":23.0,"years":10,"unit":"%","value":30.3408,"tag":"Seaborne tightness","read":"Brent trades at a 30.3% premium to WTI, the 100th percentile of 10 years. A wide spread points to tight international supply relative to the US market.","p10":2.3529,"p90":13.0672,"history":[["2016-10-06",-0.5948],["2016-10-20",0.2186],["2016-11-03",-1.8361],["2016-11-17",-1.7633],["2016-12-02",1.2573],["2016-12-16",4.275],["2017-01-04",2.4596],["2017-01-19",3.4832],["2017-02-02",4.4631],["2017-02-16",1.4042],["2017-03-03",1.4813],["2017-03-17",4.6338],["2017-03-31",3.2845],["2017-04-17",4.1239],["2017-05-01",3.2357],["2017-05-15",4.9734],["2017-05-30",2.0552],["2017-06-13",1.1635],["2017-06-27",4.339],["2017-07-13",3.452],["2017-07-27",3.3028],["2017-08-10",8.3436],["2017-08-24",9.5047],["2017-09-08",14.9874],["2017-09-22",15.5573],["2017-10-06",12.4848],["2017-10-20",12.1247],["2017-11-03",10.4081],["2017-11-17",9.1265],["2017-12-04",10.3862],["2017-12-18",12.734],["2018-01-04",10.8906],["2018-01-19",8.1729],["2018-02-02",2.9771],["2018-02-16",3.894],["2018-03-05",5.2648],["2018-03-19",4.5315],["2018-04-04",4.2463],["2018-04-18",7.7294],["2018-05-02",7.7014],["2018-05-17",12.061],["2018-06-01",13.2655],["2018-06-15",10.783],["2018-06-29",4.4651],["2018-07-16",4.119],["2018-07-30",5.3378],["2018-08-13",5.0112],["2018-08-27",6.3456],["2018-09-11",12.8879],["2018-09-25",12.0027],["2018-10-09",13.6224],["2018-10-23",18.3185],["2018-11-06",13.6422],["2018-11-20",15.1901],["2018-12-06",12.2041],["2018-12-20",15.7756],["2019-01-10",15.3567],["2019-01-25",14.8702],["2019-02-08",16.3412],["2019-02-25",15.7267],["2019-03-11",14.5624],["2019-03-25",14.7505],["2019-04-08",10.4863],["2019-04-23",12.3037],["2019-05-07",15.5838],["2019-05-21",15.741],["2019-06-05",20.4964],["2019-06-19",16.952],["2019-07-03",11.3389],["2019-07-19",10.1407],["2019-08-02",9.7898],["2019-08-16",7.6053],["2019-08-30",10.8407],["2019-09-16",8.4311],["2019-09-30",12.7565],["2019-10-14",9.7816],["2019-10-28",8.6151],["2019-11-12",9.7406],["2019-11-26",11.279],["2019-12-11",11.287],["2019-12-26",12.2165],["2020-01-10",13.1311],["2020-01-27",10.2656],["2020-02-10",7.6628],["2020-02-25",11.0687],["2020-03-10",3.1912],["2020-03-24",16.5002],["2020-04-07",-6.1172],["2020-04-23",0.0],["2020-05-07",2.3226],["2020-05-22",0.9256],["2020-06-08",3.9036],["2020-06-22",6.4039],["2020-07-07",6.6272],["2020-07-21",6.1063],["2020-08-04",5.5676],["2020-08-18",5.7123],["2020-09-02",-0.1403],["2020-09-17",3.3179],["2020-10-01",3.2199],["2020-10-15",1.8854],["2020-10-29",1.7251],["2020-11-12",3.0807],["2020-11-30",3.6283],["2020-12-14",6.912],["2020-12-29",5.4127],["2021-01-13",5.1316],["2021-01-28",4.9943],["2021-02-11",4.9296],["2021-02-26",7.0024],["2021-03-12",5.0008],["2021-03-26",4.6611],["2021-04-13",4.3688],["2021-04-27",5.1087],["2021-05-12",5.5488],["2021-05-26",3.7946],["2021-06-10",1.8624],["2021-06-24",3.6011],["2021-07-09",3.4603],["2021-07-23",3.6268],["2021-08-06",4.0434],["2021-08-20",5.2369],["2021-09-07",4.424],["2021-09-21",4.4533],["2021-10-05",4.484],["2021-10-19",2.1998],["2021-11-02",0.6078],["2021-11-16",2.5879],["2021-12-02",5.9459],["2021-12-16",3.1794],["2022-01-04",3.1039],["2022-01-19",3.2243],["2022-02-02",3.7092],["2022-02-16",3.8474],["2022-03-03",7.1223],["2022-03-17",10.2263],["2022-03-31",6.7244],["2022-04-14",3.7346],["2022-05-03",2.3505],["2022-05-17",0.5164],["2022-06-01",6.0212],["2022-06-16",6.9922],["2022-07-01",8.078],["2022-07-18",12.2416],["2022-08-01",9.8354],["2022-08-15",6.5156],["2022-08-30",7.8844],["2022-09-14",4.4442],["2022-09-29",9.3299],["2022-10-13",6.2172],["2022-10-27",5.7377],["2022-11-10",8.9344],["2022-11-25",9.0909],["2022-12-09",7.4877],["2022-12-23",3.6195],["2023-01-11",4.7121],["2023-01-26",7.0064],["2023-02-09",6.9452],["2023-02-24",8.0326],["2023-03-10",7.5114],["2023-03-24",6.371],["2023-04-11",7.0885],["2023-04-25",6.5931],["2023-05-11",6.3692],["2023-05-25",5.5525],["2023-06-09",6.5279],["2023-06-26",6.904],["2023-07-11",6.2375],["2023-07-25",4.6389],["2023-08-08",6.1008],["2023-08-22",5.5452],["2023-09-07",4.9384],["2023-09-21",4.6226],["2023-10-05",7.2661],["2023-10-20",5.1616],["2023-11-03",7.8335],["2023-11-20",6.5941],["2023-12-05",7.394],["2023-12-19",8.999],["2024-01-05",5.8243],["2024-01-22",8.557],["2024-02-05",8.3185],["2024-02-20",7.6982],["2024-03-05",8.4819],["2024-03-19",3.5194],["2024-04-04",3.3764],["2024-04-18",5.7964],["2024-05-02",5.2364],["2024-05-17",0.7103],["2024-06-03",1.5812],["2024-06-17",1.3771],["2024-07-02",4.9828],["2024-07-17",1.9011],["2024-07-31",2.558],["2024-08-14",4.6897],["2024-08-29",6.0468],["2024-09-13",5.8773],["2024-09-27",4.2346],["2024-10-11",5.4658],["2024-10-28",6.238],["2024-11-12",6.0354],["2024-11-26",7.9797],["2024-12-11",5.3989],["2024-12-27",3.4933],["2025-01-14",5.3581],["2025-01-29",5.5936],["2025-02-12",5.1032],["2025-02-27",6.2164],["2025-03-13",5.9862],["2025-03-27",6.2873],["2025-04-10",7.9247],["2025-04-28",4.4708],["2025-05-13",2.9059],["2025-05-28",5.0847],["2025-06-11",3.4538],["2025-06-26",3.2059],["2025-07-11",3.4899],["2025-07-25",4.2935],["2025-08-08",3.4339],["2025-08-22",6.5699],["2025-09-09",7.9403],["2025-09-23",6.5872],["2025-10-07",7.3257],["2025-10-22",5.0253],["2025-11-05",5.1987],["2025-11-20",5.9431],["2025-12-05",6.9567],["2025-12-19",8.0106],["2026-01-07",9.052],["2026-01-22",10.4997],["2026-02-05",11.0811],["2026-02-20",9.0868],["2026-03-06",5.4754],["2026-03-20",19.9676],["2026-04-07",20.6231],["2026-04-21",13.349],["2026-05-06",5.0127],["2026-05-20",7.1197],["2026-06-04",2.2204],["2026-06-18",-1.2446],["2026-07-06",-0.0575],["2026-07-20",3.0932],["2026-08-03",8.4675],["2026-08-17",7.4268],["2026-09-01",4.9628],["2026-09-16",23.3739],["2026-09-30",19.2735],["2026-10-06",30.3408]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"crack","name":"3-2-1 crack spread","pair":"refining margin as % of crude cost","group":"Energy","freq":"Daily","license":"public","asOf":"2026-10-06","pctile":96,"z5":1.82,"chg_3m":-16.2,"chg_1y":30.4,"years":10,"unit":"%","value":64.308,"tag":"Strong margins","read":"Refined products in New York Harbor are worth 64% more than the crude they're made from (3-2-1 crack), the 96th percentile of 10 years. Refiners are earning strong margins, a sign of firm fuel demand or tight refining capacity.","p10":23.0143,"p90":49.7607,"history":[["2016-10-06",25.4837],["2016-10-20",26.8098],["2016-11-03",39.8433],["2016-11-17",28.0273],["2016-12-02",29.1412],["2016-12-16",29.7015],["2017-01-03",32.4866],["2017-01-18",28.9906],["2017-02-01",24.1039],["2017-02-15",23.1821],["2017-03-02",17.4159],["2017-03-16",26.7536],["2017-03-30",30.2584],["2017-04-13",28.4715],["2017-04-28",24.9807],["2017-05-12",31.5701],["2017-05-26",33.2231],["2017-06-12",28.0043],["2017-06-26",32.6827],["2017-07-12",35.9982],["2017-07-26",35.3026],["2017-08-09",36.4993],["2017-08-23",38.8442],["2017-09-07",65.5193],["2017-09-21",43.8197],["2017-10-05",40.7167],["2017-10-19",39.7543],["2017-11-02",40.154],["2017-11-16",35.9376],["2017-12-01",29.515],["2017-12-15",27.0239],["2018-01-02",29.1005],["2018-01-17",27.2966],["2018-01-31",28.1641],["2018-02-14",22.771],["2018-03-01",29.9902],["2018-03-15",24.0451],["2018-03-29",26.1662],["2018-04-13",25.9688],["2018-04-27",28.8181],["2018-05-11",28.1567],["2018-05-25",31.7138],["2018-06-11",31.6762],["2018-06-25",21.6564],["2018-07-10",21.6192],["2018-07-24",23.6202],["2018-08-07",29.0097],["2018-08-21",28.6037],["2018-09-05",29.687],["2018-09-19",26.3112],["2018-10-03",25.4869],["2018-10-17",26.9711],["2018-10-31",26.4952],["2018-11-14",32.5712],["2018-11-30",33.4108],["2018-12-14",31.943],["2019-01-03",35.0469],["2019-01-17",28.6552],["2019-02-01",21.7182],["2019-02-15",32.1159],["2019-03-04",31.318],["2019-03-18",34.4796],["2019-04-01",28.339],["2019-04-15",34.9015],["2019-04-30",34.9992],["2019-05-14",33.0249],["2019-05-29",35.1462],["2019-06-12",37.5631],["2019-06-26",37.2554],["2019-07-12",37.0128],["2019-07-26",40.05],["2019-08-09",31.9463],["2019-08-23",32.4408],["2019-09-09",29.7927],["2019-09-23",32.152],["2019-10-07",39.0978],["2019-10-21",42.5751],["2019-11-04",36.9679],["2019-11-19",31.5128],["2019-12-05",25.3338],["2019-12-19",25.7945],["2020-01-06",23.2496],["2020-01-21",23.7768],["2020-02-04",27.5781],["2020-02-19",33.3296],["2020-03-04",37.8752],["2020-03-18",55.7227],["2020-04-01",32.9586],["2020-04-16",50.4541],["2020-04-30",50.2652],["2020-05-14",27.635],["2020-05-29",11.3073],["2020-06-12",21.9205],["2020-06-26",18.4895],["2020-07-13",26.7549],["2020-07-27",24.5007],["2020-08-10",19.9714],["2020-08-24",29.18],["2020-09-08",26.6341],["2020-09-22",23.823],["2020-10-06",28.08],["2020-10-20",20.5415],["2020-11-03",24.0331],["2020-11-17",19.6314],["2020-12-03",19.1763],["2020-12-17",23.2313],["2021-01-04",22.924],["2021-01-19",23.3441],["2021-02-02",24.4331],["2021-02-17",23.5456],["2021-03-03",26.6917],["2021-03-17",27.6375],["2021-03-31",30.0186],["2021-04-15",28.5872],["2021-04-29",28.1538],["2021-05-13",31.7737],["2021-05-27",27.9617],["2021-06-11",21.7803],["2021-06-25",20.5309],["2021-07-12",22.8136],["2021-07-26",28.377],["2021-08-09",34.0054],["2021-08-23",28.3778],["2021-09-07",33.3158],["2021-09-21",28.6626],["2021-10-05",27.5862],["2021-10-19",26.7893],["2021-11-02",26.7525],["2021-11-16",24.3289],["2021-12-02",28.5015],["2021-12-16",27.1109],["2021-12-31",25.6153],["2022-01-14",24.5836],["2022-01-31",22.8062],["2022-02-14",25.0503],["2022-03-01",28.0205],["2022-03-15",26.4675],["2022-03-29",30.5324],["2022-04-12",37.7994],["2022-04-27",60.2668],["2022-05-11",63.6739],["2022-05-25",46.2261],["2022-06-09",49.6659],["2022-06-24",56.9561],["2022-07-11",44.5791],["2022-07-25",44.7962],["2022-08-08",40.5389],["2022-08-22",41.4237],["2022-09-06",38.1729],["2022-09-20",38.5453],["2022-10-04",52.1676],["2022-10-19",67.8698],["2022-11-02",47.1663],["2022-11-17",55.4927],["2022-12-02",41.2447],["2022-12-16",39.7736],["2023-01-03",44.3346],["2023-01-18",47.8863],["2023-02-01",45.52],["2023-02-15",40.6593],["2023-03-02",41.3812],["2023-03-16",48.1555],["2023-03-30",43.2589],["2023-04-14",40.6612],["2023-04-28",36.4444],["2023-05-12",42.2793],["2023-05-26",47.953],["2023-06-12",57.2182],["2023-06-27",51.5426],["2023-07-12",45.3029],["2023-07-26",48.8307],["2023-08-09",49.527],["2023-08-23",52.4902],["2023-09-07",42.643],["2023-09-21",40.1407],["2023-10-05",30.1166],["2023-10-20",29.9933],["2023-11-03",17.9973],["2023-11-20",36.4686],["2023-12-05",39.5914],["2023-12-19",37.075],["2024-01-04",33.8491],["2024-01-19",33.9775],["2024-02-02",33.2618],["2024-02-16",30.4733],["2024-03-04",29.9661],["2024-03-18",30.631],["2024-04-02",32.0838],["2024-04-16",32.1509],["2024-04-30",32.102],["2024-05-14",27.8674],["2024-05-29",27.2458],["2024-06-12",25.5178],["2024-06-27",26.5125],["2024-07-12",23.7681],["2024-07-26",27.5464],["2024-08-09",26.1037],["2024-08-23",24.3603],["2024-09-09",15.4372],["2024-09-23",13.896],["2024-10-07",14.9743],["2024-10-22",24.3932],["2024-11-05",26.4572],["2024-11-20",30.0332],["2024-12-05",27.4657],["2024-12-19",21.9857],["2025-01-06",22.2716],["2025-01-22",23.6127],["2025-02-05",29.5868],["2025-02-20",29.0313],["2025-03-06",24.7853],["2025-03-20",26.0511],["2025-04-03",25.0512],["2025-04-17",26.2087],["2025-05-02",31.5535],["2025-05-16",32.0175],["2025-06-02",29.1576],["2025-06-16",30.04],["2025-07-01",36.0504],["2025-07-16",38.4567],["2025-07-30",36.2977],["2025-08-13",38.7029],["2025-08-27",40.8032],["2025-09-11",36.9638],["2025-09-25",35.8327],["2025-10-09",33.467],["2025-10-24",38.2463],["2025-11-07",45.4575],["2025-11-24",45.3527],["2025-12-09",38.4178],["2025-12-23",34.1418],["2026-01-08",47.6134],["2026-01-23",47.196],["2026-02-06",44.0395],["2026-02-23",39.2616],["2026-03-09",25.6968],["2026-03-23",57.2708],["2026-04-07",30.5917],["2026-04-21",52.2747],["2026-05-05",49.752],["2026-05-19",45.3832],["2026-06-03",43.34],["2026-06-17",53.5226],["2026-07-02",79.2715],["2026-07-17",83.6126],["2026-07-31",70.2553],["2026-08-14",75.9543],["2026-08-28",87.1467],["2026-09-14",60.3534],["2026-09-28",62.5279],["2026-10-06",64.308]],"history_kind":"level"},{"key":"soy_corn","name":"Soybeans / Corn","pair":"price per bushel","group":"Agriculture","freq":"Monthly","license":"public","asOf":"2026-09-01","pctile":34,"z5":-0.23,"chg_3m":-7.1,"chg_1y":6.9,"years":20,"unit":"","value":2.3433,"tag":"Neutral","read":"Soybeans are priced at 2.34 times corn per bushel (34th percentile of 20 years). Neither crop has a clear planting advantage.","p10":2.0333,"p90":2.8387,"history":[["2006-09-01",2.2715],["2006-10-01",2.0571],["2006-11-01",1.9541],["2006-12-01",1.984],["2007-01-01",1.9895],["2007-02-01",1.9641],["2007-03-01",2.0236],["2007-04-01",2.2454],["2007-05-01",2.2339],["2007-06-01",2.3414],["2007-07-01",2.7444],["2007-08-01",2.7283],["2007-09-01",2.8635],["2007-10-01",2.9364],["2007-11-01",3.0587],["2007-12-01",2.9951],["2008-01-01",2.7422],["2008-02-01",2.7943],["2008-03-01",2.5553],["2008-04-01",2.3873],["2008-05-01",2.4906],["2008-06-01",2.3699],["2008-07-01",2.5727],["2008-08-01",2.5396],["2008-09-01",2.406],["2008-10-01",2.3407],["2008-11-01",2.4334],["2008-12-01",2.4299],["2009-01-01",2.4865],["2009-02-01",2.4525],["2009-03-01",2.4281],["2009-04-01",2.4673],["2009-05-01",2.5372],["2009-06-01",2.6384],["2009-07-01",3.0462],["2009-08-01",3.5105],["2009-09-01",3.0278],["2009-10-01",2.7539],["2009-11-01",2.7911],["2009-12-01",2.9228],["2010-01-01",2.7924],["2010-02-01",2.7284],["2010-03-01",2.7562],["2010-04-01",2.7486],["2010-05-01",2.6426],["2010-06-01",2.8138],["2010-07-01",2.7997],["2010-08-01",2.7458],["2010-09-01",2.4354],["2010-10-01",2.2538],["2010-11-01",2.3121],["2010-12-01",2.3364],["2011-01-01",2.2975],["2011-02-01",2.0705],["2011-03-01",2.0397],["2011-04-01",1.8691],["2011-05-01",1.9383],["2011-06-01",1.918],["2011-07-01",1.9841],["2011-08-01",1.9101],["2011-09-01",1.9303],["2011-10-01",1.9145],["2011-11-01",1.8665],["2011-12-01",2.0012],["2012-01-01",1.9756],["2012-02-01",2.0049],["2012-03-01",2.088],["2012-04-01",2.2837],["2012-05-01",2.2957],["2012-06-01",2.3169],["2012-07-01",2.1552],["2012-08-01",2.2075],["2012-09-01",2.2612],["2012-10-01",2.0882],["2012-11-01",1.949],["2012-12-01",2.052],["2013-01-01",2.1034],["2013-02-01",2.1628],["2013-03-01",2.0285],["2013-04-01",2.159],["2013-05-01",1.8057],["2013-06-01",1.8851],["2013-07-01",1.9589],["2013-08-01",2.2983],["2013-09-01",2.8931],["2013-10-01",2.8739],["2013-11-01",2.9653],["2013-12-01",3.0614],["2014-01-01",3.0614],["2014-02-01",2.5136],["2014-03-01",2.5594],["2014-04-01",2.486],["2014-05-01",2.5591],["2014-06-01",2.7052],["2014-07-01",2.7681],["2014-08-01",2.788],["2014-09-01",2.8249],["2014-10-01",2.7986],["2014-11-01",2.6982],["2014-12-01",2.6862],["2015-01-01",2.6557],["2015-02-01",2.6155],["2015-03-01",2.5218],["2015-04-01",2.4592],["2015-05-01",2.4999],["2015-06-01",2.5132],["2015-07-01",2.4222],["2015-08-01",2.4975],["2015-09-01",2.3746],["2015-10-01",2.3505],["2015-11-01",2.3725],["2015-12-01",2.4058],["2016-01-01",2.4824],["2016-02-01",2.5093],["2016-03-01",2.5659],["2016-04-01",2.5744],["2016-05-01",2.6819],["2016-06-01",2.7219],["2016-07-01",2.8542],["2016-08-01",2.9391],["2016-09-01",2.917],["2016-10-01",2.8282],["2016-11-01",2.8093],["2016-12-01",2.9248],["2017-01-01",2.7591],["2017-02-01",2.5981],["2017-03-01",2.5877],["2017-04-01",2.6513],["2017-05-01",2.6348],["2017-06-01",2.5718],["2017-07-01",2.7892],["2017-08-01",2.8356],["2017-09-01",2.866],["2017-10-01",2.8626],["2017-11-01",2.839],["2017-12-01",2.783],["2018-01-01",2.6821],["2018-02-01",2.7279],["2018-03-01",2.6787],["2018-04-01",2.6787],["2018-05-01",2.5725],["2018-06-01",2.557],["2018-07-01",2.5811],["2018-08-01",2.4874],["2018-09-01",2.471],["2018-10-01",2.4598],["2018-11-01",2.4937],["2018-12-01",2.4387],["2019-01-01",2.4553],["2019-02-01",2.4021],["2019-03-01",2.3854],["2019-04-01",2.3884],["2019-05-01",2.1292],["2019-06-01",1.9716],["2019-07-01",2.0932],["2019-08-01",2.3643],["2019-09-01",2.4931],["2019-10-01",2.4495],["2019-11-01",2.4226],["2019-12-01",2.4573],["2020-01-01",2.4136],["2020-02-01",2.3881],["2020-03-01",2.461],["2020-04-01",2.6331],["2020-05-01",2.6731],["2020-06-01",2.6787],["2020-07-01",2.6752],["2020-08-01",2.763],["2020-09-01",2.7287],["2020-10-01",2.6055],["2020-11-01",2.8138],["2020-12-01",2.7541],["2021-01-01",2.6319],["2021-02-01",2.5257],["2021-03-01",2.5607],["2021-04-01",2.3851],["2021-05-01",2.2707],["2021-06-01",2.2521],["2021-07-01",2.3092],["2021-08-01",2.4469],["2021-09-01",2.5377],["2021-10-01",2.4685],["2021-11-01",2.3739],["2021-12-01",2.2442],["2022-01-01",2.3475],["2022-02-01",2.4242],["2022-03-01",2.3026],["2022-04-01",2.2187],["2022-05-01",2.2499],["2022-06-01",2.3523],["2022-07-01",2.2491],["2022-08-01",2.4809],["2022-09-01",2.2752],["2022-10-01",1.9521],["2022-11-01",2.167],["2022-12-01",2.2904],["2023-01-01",2.2187],["2023-02-01",2.3391],["2023-03-01",2.3819],["2023-04-01",2.2637],["2023-05-01",2.378],["2023-06-01",2.3766],["2023-07-01",2.8025],["2023-08-01",3.0142],["2023-09-01",2.9636],["2023-10-01",2.4616],["2023-11-01",2.8042],["2023-12-01",2.8382],["2024-01-01",2.9511],["2024-02-01",2.9464],["2024-03-01",2.7377],["2024-04-01",2.6661],["2024-05-01",2.6543],["2024-06-01",2.6717],["2024-07-01",2.8387],["2024-08-01",2.5167],["2024-09-01",2.2646],["2024-10-01",2.4887],["2024-11-01",2.3207],["2024-12-01",2.163],["2025-01-01",2.054],["2025-02-01",1.9984],["2025-03-01",2.0717],["2025-04-01",2.0333],["2025-05-01",2.1755],["2025-06-01",2.273],[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500 / Gold","pair":"equities priced in gold","group":"Equities vs commodities","freq":"Monthly","license":"restricted","asOf":"2026-09-01","pctile":18,"z5":-1.02,"chg_3m":0.8,"chg_1y":-1.1,"years":10,"unit":"","tag":"Gold outperforming","read":"The S&P 500 priced in gold is at the 18th percentile of 10 years and roughly flat over 3 months. Gold has been outperforming equities, typical of defensive or inflationary periods.","history":[["2017-07-01",1.13],["2017-08-01",0.36],["2017-09-01",0.15],["2017-10-01",1.21],["2017-11-01",1.34],["2017-12-01",1.89],["2018-01-01",1.56],["2018-02-01",0.92],["2018-03-01",0.94],["2018-04-01",0.44],["2018-05-01",1.17],["2018-06-01",1.69],["2018-07-01",2.25],["2018-08-01",2.59],["2018-09-01",2.42],["2018-10-01",1.55],["2018-11-01",1.14],["2018-12-01",0.15],["2019-01-01",-0.05],["2019-02-01",0.34],["2019-03-01",0.72],["2019-04-01",1.28],["2019-05-01",1.04],["2019-06-01",0.46],["2019-07-01",0.42],["2019-08-01",-0.7],["2019-09-01",-0.44],["2019-10-01",-0.33],["2019-11-01",0.41],["2019-12-01",0.63],["2020-01-01",0.32],["2020-02-01",0.01],["2020-03-01",-2.3],["2020-04-01",-2.27],["2020-05-01",-1.82],["2020-06-01",-1.27],["2020-07-01",-1.52],["2020-08-01",-1.54],["2020-09-01",-1.34],["2020-10-01",-1.06],["2020-11-01",-0.5],["2020-12-01",-0.03],["2021-01-01",0.2],["2021-02-01",0.82],["2021-03-01",1.49],["2021-04-01",1.83],["2021-05-01",1.26],["2021-06-01",1.52],["2021-07-01",1.97],["2021-08-01",2.26],["2021-09-01",2.19],["2021-10-01",2.11],["2021-11-01",2.24],["2021-12-01",2.33],["2022-01-01",1.83],["2022-02-01",1.24],["2022-03-01",0.65],["2022-04-01",0.68],["2022-05-01",0.31],["2022-06-01",0.03],["2022-07-01",0.59],["2022-08-01",0.98],["2022-09-01",0.67],["2022-10-01",0.43],["2022-11-01",0.55],["2022-12-01",0.13],["2023-01-01",-0.26],["2023-02-01",0.22],["2023-03-01",-0.32],["2023-04-01",-0.38],["2023-05-01",-0.3],["2023-06-01",0.36],["2023-07-01",0.67],["2023-08-01",0.72],["2023-09-01",0.63],["2023-10-01",0.34],["2023-11-01",0.43],["2023-12-01",0.7],["2024-01-01",0.89],["2024-02-01",1.35],["2024-03-01",0.96],["2024-04-01",0.1],["2024-05-01",0.24],["2024-06-01",0.66],["2024-07-01",0.56],["2024-08-01",0.16],["2024-09-01",0.01],["2024-10-01",-0.15],["2024-11-01",0.21],["2024-12-01",0.34],["2025-01-01",0.06],["2025-02-01",-0.47],["2025-03-01",-1.22],["2025-04-01",-2.24],["2025-05-01",-1.91],["2025-06-01",-1.75],["2025-07-01",-1.39],["2025-08-01",-1.35],["2025-09-01",-1.87],["2025-10-01",-2.45],["2025-11-01",-2.43],["2025-12-01",-2.56],["2026-01-01",-2.88],["2026-02-01",-2.94],["2026-03-01",-2.72],["2026-04-01",-2.22],["2026-05-01",-1.67],["2026-06-01",-1.16],["2026-07-01",-0.89],["2026-08-01",-1.14],["2026-09-01",-1.02]],"history_kind":"z"},{"key":"spx_oil","name":"S&P 500 / Oil","pair":"equities priced in barrels","group":"Equities vs commodities","freq":"Daily","license":"restricted","asOf":"2026-10-06","pctile":79,"z5":0.54,"chg_3m":-22.6,"chg_1y":-24.7,"years":10,"unit":"","tag":"Neutral","read":"The S&P 500 priced in barrels of WTI is at the 79th percentile of 10 years and falling over 3 months. Equities and energy are in their usual relationship.","history":[["2016-10-24",0.82],["2016-11-07",2.01],["2016-11-21",0.42],["2016-12-06",-0.71],["2016-12-20",-0.61],["2017-01-05",-1.01],["2017-01-20",-0.46],["2017-02-03",-0.74],["2017-02-17",-0.09],["2017-03-06",0.23],["2017-03-20",2.21],["2017-04-03",0.81],["2017-04-18",-0.12],["2017-05-02",2.02],["2017-05-16",1.37],["2017-05-31",1.52],["2017-06-14",2.67],["2017-06-28",2.1],["2017-07-14",1.47],["2017-07-28",0.61],["2017-08-11",0.66],["2017-08-25",0.92],["2017-09-11",1.0],["2017-09-25",0.08],["2017-10-09",0.87],["2017-10-23",0.37],["2017-11-06",-0.74],["2017-11-20",-0.53],["2017-12-05",-0.6],["2017-12-19",-0.31],["2018-01-04",-1.03],["2018-01-19",-0.89],["2018-02-02",-1.44],["2018-02-16",-0.87],["2018-03-05",-1.01],["2018-03-19",-0.94],["2018-04-03",-1.54],["2018-04-17",-1.6],["2018-05-01",-1.81],["2018-05-15",-2.04],["2018-05-30",-1.49],["2018-06-13",-1.05],["2018-06-27",-2.58],["2018-07-12",-1.35],["2018-07-26",-1.36],["2018-08-09",-0.64],["2018-08-23",-0.95],["2018-09-07",-0.69],["2018-09-21",-0.9],["2018-10-05",-1.44],["2018-10-19",-1.14],["2018-11-02",-0.42],["2018-11-16",0.75],["2018-12-04",1.23],["2018-12-19",1.53],["2019-01-08",1.39],["2019-01-23",1.03],["2019-02-06",1.08],["2019-02-21",0.65],["2019-03-07",0.6],["2019-03-21",0.39],["2019-04-04",0.12],["2019-04-18",-0.1],["2019-05-03",0.38],["2019-05-17",-0.06],["2019-06-03",1.27],["2019-06-17",2.12],["2019-07-01",0.93],["2019-07-17",1.46],["2019-07-31",1.01],["2019-08-14",1.1],["2019-08-28",1.14],["2019-09-12",1.71],["2019-09-26",1.34],["2019-10-10",1.69],["2019-10-24",1.4],["2019-11-07",1.48],["2019-11-22",1.39],["2019-12-09",1.21],["2019-12-23",1.22],["2020-01-08",1.45],["2020-01-23",2.46],["2020-02-06",3.38],["2020-02-21",2.61],["2020-03-06",4.08],["2020-03-20",9.01],["2020-04-03",3.23],["2020-04-20",-8.47],["2020-05-04",3.95],["2020-05-18",1.77],["2020-06-02",1.34],["2020-06-16",1.24],["2020-06-30",1.11],["2020-07-15",1.07],["2020-07-29",1.09],["2020-08-12",1.09],["2020-08-26",1.12],["2020-09-10",1.5],["2020-09-24",1.11],["2020-10-08",1.22],["2020-10-22",1.26],["2020-11-05",1.48],["2020-11-19",1.26],["2020-12-07",1.02],["2020-12-21",0.87],["2021-01-06",0.73],["2021-01-21",0.66],["2021-02-04",0.5],["2021-02-19",0.37],["2021-03-05",0.03],["2021-03-19",0.27],["2021-04-05",0.52],["2021-04-19",0.36],["2021-05-03",0.32],["2021-05-17",0.23],["2021-06-01",0.19],["2021-06-15",0.05],["2021-06-29",0.04],["2021-07-14",0.09],["2021-07-28",0.13],["2021-08-11",0.28],["2021-08-25",0.34],["2021-09-09",0.35],["2021-09-23",0.12],["2021-10-07",-0.09],["2021-10-21",-0.14],["2021-11-04",0.05],["2021-11-18",0.06],["2021-12-06",0.34],["2021-12-20",0.36],["2022-01-04",0.16],["2022-01-19",-0.3],["2022-02-02",-0.31],["2022-02-16",-0.52],["2022-03-03",-0.85],["2022-03-17",-0.73],["2022-03-31",-0.63],["2022-04-14",-0.81],["2022-04-29",-0.88],["2022-05-13",-1.01],["2022-05-27",-1.02],["2022-06-13",-1.24],["2022-06-28",-1.11],["2022-07-13",-0.87],["2022-07-27",-0.8],["2022-08-10",-0.6],["2022-08-24",-0.65],["2022-09-08",-0.45],["2022-09-22",-0.58],["2022-10-06",-0.7],["2022-10-20",-0.67],["2022-11-03",-0.69],["2022-11-17",-0.41],["2022-12-02",-0.3],["2022-12-16",-0.26],["2023-01-03",-0.36],["2023-01-18",-0.38],["2023-02-01",-0.18],["2023-02-15",-0.23],["2023-03-02",-0.31],["2023-03-16",-0.0],["2023-03-30",-0.17],["2023-04-14",-0.37],["2023-04-28",-0.19],["2023-05-12",0.01],["2023-05-26",-0.03],["2023-06-12",0.26],["2023-06-27",0.26],["2023-07-12",-0.01],["2023-07-26",-0.08],["2023-08-09",-0.3],["2023-08-23",-0.16],["2023-09-07",-0.39],["2023-09-21",-0.53],["2023-10-05",-0.38],["2023-10-20",-0.58],["2023-11-03",-0.3],["2023-11-20",-0.09],["2023-12-05",0.15],["2023-12-19",0.22],["2024-01-04",0.21],["2024-01-19",0.24],["2024-02-02",0.35],["2024-02-16",0.1],["2024-03-04",0.17],["2024-03-18",0.03],["2024-04-02",-0.03],["2024-04-16",-0.12],["2024-04-30",-0.05],["2024-05-14",0.21],["2024-05-29",0.19],["2024-06-12",0.3],["2024-06-27",0.2],["2024-07-12",0.25],["2024-07-26",0.35],["2024-08-09",0.29],["2024-08-23",0.57],["2024-09-09",0.76],["2024-09-23",0.82],["2024-10-07",0.49],["2024-10-22",0.81],["2024-11-05",0.78],["2024-11-20",1.02],["2024-12-05",1.15],["2024-12-19",0.91],["2025-01-06",0.74],["2025-01-22",0.71],["2025-02-05",0.93],["2025-02-20",0.88],["2025-03-06",0.97],["2025-03-20",0.81],["2025-04-03",0.74],["2025-04-17",0.83],["2025-05-02",2.07],["2025-05-16",2.02],["2025-06-02",2.04],["2025-06-16",1.31],["2025-07-01",1.95],["2025-07-16",1.95],["2025-07-30",1.67],["2025-08-13",2.42],["2025-08-27",2.3],["2025-09-11",2.54],["2025-09-25",2.23],["2025-10-09",2.61],["2025-10-24",2.59],["2025-11-07",2.65],["2025-11-24",2.71],["2025-12-09",2.82],["2025-12-23",2.76],["2026-01-08",2.75],["2026-01-23",2.37],["2026-02-06",2.06],["2026-02-23",1.74],["2026-03-09",0.21],["2026-03-23",0.3],["2026-04-07",-0.46],["2026-04-21",0.38],["2026-05-05",0.06],["2026-05-19",-0.09],["2026-06-03",0.39],["2026-06-17",1.16],["2026-07-02",1.85],["2026-07-17",0.98],["2026-07-31",0.85],["2026-08-14",1.11],["2026-08-28",1.02],["2026-09-14",0.24],["2026-09-28",0.37],["2026-10-06",0.54]],"history_kind":"z"}],"correlations":{"names":["WTI","Nat gas","10Y yield","Real yield","Breakeven","US dollar","S&P 500"],"matrix":[[1.0,0.08,0.41,0.21,0.52,0.39,-0.38],[0.08,1.0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07],[0.41,-0.02,1.0,0.89,0.56,0.25,-0.36],[0.21,-0.01,0.89,1.0,0.13,0.25,-0.35],[0.52,-0.03,0.56,0.13,1.0,0.09,-0.16],[0.39,-0.01,0.25,0.25,0.09,1.0,-0.41],[-0.38,-0.07,-0.36,-0.35,-0.16,-0.41,1.0]],"window":"1 year, daily changes"},"links":[{"pair":"WTI ↔ Breakeven","label":"Oil and inflation expectations","corr":0.52,"read":"Oil is driving inflation expectations: moves in crude are passing through to breakevens."},{"pair":"WTI ↔ US dollar","label":"Oil and the dollar","corr":0.39,"read":"Oil and the dollar are rising together, a sign that supply, not the currency, is setting the oil price."},{"pair":"S&P 500 ↔ 10Y yield","label":"Equities and bond yields","corr":-0.36,"read":"Stocks fall when yields rise: higher rates are hurting equity valuations."},{"pair":"WTI ↔ S&P 500","label":"Oil and equities","corr":-0.38,"read":"Oil and equities are moving in opposite directions, typical of a supply shock."}],"read":{"regime":"Reflationary","line":"Ratios lean toward growth: industrial metals and equities are gaining on gold.","notes":["Brent vs WTI is at the 100th percentile (seaborne tightness).","3-2-1 crack spread is at the 96th percentile (strong margins).","Copper / Gold is at the 11th percentile (growth scare).","Gold / Oil is at the 89th percentile (growth fears)."],"score":2}}}